GOP primary for Arizona governor pits a billionaire developer against a conservative firebrand

PHOENIX (AP) — The Republican primary to challenge Arizona’s Democratic governor, Katie Hobbs, next year looks like it will pit a billionaire developer endorsed by President Donald Trump against a member of the House Freedom Caucus who backed Trump’s false claims about the 2020 presidential election having been stolen.

Whoever gets the Republican nod in the August 2026 primary will be tasked with trying to help the GOP reclaim some of the power it has lost since dominating Arizona politics for decades. The race began taking shape last week when lawyer and housing developer Karrin Taylor Robson declared her candidacy, joining U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, who announced his bid last month.

Robson brings her vast wealth, business connections and — unlike her failed 2022 run for the same office — Trump’s backing. Biggs brings his own conservative credentials, having been one of the eight House Republicans who helped oust Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker in 2023 and being firmly in Trump’s corner throughout his time in Washington.

Both hope to become governor of a battleground state where a GOP resurgence could severely hamper Democrats’ path back to influence in Congress. Since Trump was first elected in 2016, few Arizona Republicans have managed to bridge the deep divide between their party’s traditional pro-business conservatives and the president’s populist Make America Great Again movement, leading to acrimonious primaries that have left the GOP nominee bruised and poorly positioned for the general election.

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Robson is trying to crack the code by maintaining her close ties to party stalwarts while leaning hard on Trump’s backing and adopting his populist rhetoric. She casts herself as “tough as nails on illegal immigration” and a crusader against diversity equity and inclusion initiatives. She’s married to billionaire Ed Robson, a housing developer and one of Arizona’s richest people, and has used her considerable wealth to help Republicans after several elections in which they lost ground to Democrats.

“In a Republican primary, there is only one endorsement that counts, and that is Donald Trump,” said GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “So, I don’t know that it matters state legislators or whatnot who they support. Donald Trump is the endorsement you dream of, and Karrin Taylor Robson has it.”

Despite having the backing of former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Robson lost the GOP primary for governor in 2022 to Kari Lake, a staunch supporter of Trump who had his endorsement and repeatedly peddled the lie that the 2020 presidential election had been stolen.

GOP strategist Constantin Querard said Robson’s advantages are her money and the lack of a voting record that both Biggs and Hobbs have from their time as legislators. He also said she could appeal to a broader swath of conservative voters and that it would be difficult for Democrats to paint her as an extremist. In 2022, Robson called the 2020 election “unfair,” but she didn’t call it fraudulent and she pushed her fellow Republicans to look to the future.

“I do think primary voters are increasingly considering who can win the general election because Republicans in Arizona are tired of losing those races that should have been won, and so electability becomes a thing,” Querard said.

Biggs has represented his ruby-red congressional district since 2016, winning over ultra-conservative voters in cities like Queen Creek and Gilbert with his strong small-government record. He has been one of Trump’s staunchest defenders in Congress and a conservative crusader unafraid to buck GOP leadership, though his prior record as president of the Arizona Senate was more pragmatic.

Biggs has deep ties to the Republican Party’s right flank. In addition to chairing the House Freedom Caucus for a time, he was investigated by the Jan. 6 committee over concerns about his involvement in the effort to overturn Trump’s 2020 election loss.

Querard said Biggs, who has the backing of the Arizona Legislature’s own Freedom Caucus, is unapologetically conservative, which can be a strength for him in the primary.

Other GOP legislators, like state Sen. Majority Leader Janae Shamp and state Rep. Teresa Martinez, have thrown their support behind Robson. Senate President Warren Petersen said he plans to weigh in “very soon.”

Hobbs, who narrowly defeated Lake in 2022 and plans to run for reelection in 2026, has faced stiff resistance from the Republican-led Legislature in trying to enact her agenda, including reining in Arizona’s school voucher program.

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