European far right celebrates Austrian election win. But Austria’s political future is uncertain

VIENNA (AP) — European far-right and nationalist parties are celebrating the hard-right Freedom Party’s win in Austria’s election. Even though it’s uncertain whether hard-line leader Herbert Kickl will be able to take his vision of a “Fortress Austria” into government, the party’s electoral success could nudge politics further in its direction.

Sunday’s result leaves Austria’s political future uncertain, as it’s questionable how stable the next administration will be — whoever forms it, probably after long negotiations.

The Euroskeptic and pro-Russian Freedom Party won a record 29.2% of the vote, gaining 13 percentage points from the 2019 election. Kickl told cheering supporters that “we wrote Austrian history today.” But Kickl needs a coalition partner to govern, and other parties say they won’t work with him.

Two mainstream parties that governed Austria for most of the time since the end of World War II were hit by voter anger about immigration and inflation and together have such a thin parliamentary majority that they would likely need a third partner to govern.

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European far-right allies rejoice

The Freedom Party is part of a right-wing populist alliance in the European Parliament, Patriots for Europe. Its members welcomed the Austrian result as building on gains in other countries, including in European elections in June.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán hailed “an historic victory” for the Freedom Party. Geert Wilders, whose party dominates the Netherlands’ new government, wrote on social media network X that “We are winning! Times are changing! Identity, sovereignty, freedom and no more illegal immigration/asylum is what tens of millions of Europeans long for!” There were congratulations from French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and others too.

The Freedom Party “will become a role model for Le Pen and others who also want to win elections and claim leadership in their respective countries,” said Paul Schmidt, secretary general of the Austrian Society for European Politics, a think tank. And the stronger the European far-right alliance gets, the more it “will be able to influence priorities on a European level, including on migration, climate and Ukraine,” he said. Schmidt characterized the Freedom Party as more radical than parties such as Le Pen’s National Rally.

He predicted that mainstream parties in Austria and beyond will borrow topics from the far right even more, which could lead to a further “shift in the public discourse.”

The Freedom Party calls for an end to sanctions against Russia and criticizes Western military aid to Ukraine. Kickl has labeled European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as a “warmonger.” His party also takes a hard-line stance on immigration, calling for “remigration of uninvited foreigners,” and wants to bring back powers from the EU to Austria.

Kickl lacks allies in Austria

Kickl led the Freedom Party to its best-ever result but could also be its chief impediment to taking power.

The 55-year-old has a taste for provocation and is known for deliberately overstepping accepted boundaries. Last year, for example, he described Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen as a “mummy” and “senile,” shocking the political establishment.

Kickl also has appeared to support conspiracy theories, advocating the use during the COVID-19 pandemic of Ivermectin, a medicine to treat parasitic worms in animals. He has called the World Health Organization “an instrument for enforcement of power interests.”

Even Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s conservative Austrian People’s Party, which has twice led national coalition governments with the Freedom Party and sits with it in some regional governments, considers Kickl a step too far — even a “security risk.” Nehammer says that Kickl “radicalized himself” and it is “impossible to shape a state” with him.

Kickl was a longtime campaign strategist for the Freedom Party, coining catchy and provocative anti-immigration slogans. He spent most of his political career in the background — notably as speechwriter for Jörg Haider, who led the party to success in the 1980s and 1990s — before serving as interior minister between 2017 and 2019 in a government that collapsed because of a corruption scandal surrounding the Freedom Party’s then-leader. He has led the party since 2021.

The Freedom Party, founded in 1956 by former Nazis, is a long-established political force in Austria.

What will happen next?

Analysts predict that forming a government will be time-consuming and complicated.

Peter Hajek, an Austrian political analyst, said Kickl could insist on becoming Austria’s next leader — and if that doesn’t happen, as seems likely at present, he will go into opposition and take a comfortable “front-row seat” watching a shaky coalition between the People’s Party and the center-left Social Democrats.

Those two parties governed post-World War II Austria together for much of the time. But this time they have such a wafer-thin parliamentary majority that they may decide to bring in a third partner, probably the liberal Neos.

While such an alliance would have more seats in parliament, a “three-party coalition is no kindergarten,” Hajek said. That has been an issue in neighboring Germany, where state-level successes for the far-right Alternative for Germany have pushed other parties into uncomfortable, argument-prone alliances in recent years.

The president traditionally functions as a discreet mediator after elections, but it’s unclear what approach Van der Bellen will take. He will swear in the new government after a coalition deal is reached, something for which there is no set deadline. On Sunday night, he said he would ensure that “the fundamental pillars of our liberal democracy will be respected.”

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Associated Press video journalist Philipp Jenne contributed to this report.