Takeaways from AP’s report on Russian and U.S. influence in Central African Republic

BANGUI, Central African Republic (AP) — In the wake of Russian mercenary leaderYevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion, a deal was struck between a private U.S. security firm and Central African Republic, a nation where his shadowy Wagner Group has long been a fixture. The move sparked backlash and tensions – a window into a larger battle playing out across the continent as Moscow and Washington vie for influence.

The Russian mercenaries — using success in staving off rebels in the impoverished nation of Central African Republic as a model for expansion — have long been plagued by their human-rights record and other accusations of wrongdoing.

Since Prigozhin’s suspicious death in a plane crash, the Russians have been working to recalibrate their Africa operations. The U.S., which has been largely disengaged from the region for years, is attempting to maintain a presence and stymie Russian gains as it pushes African countries to distance themselves from the mercenaries.

Here are some takeaways from AP’s report on the issue.

Russia has a history of aggressive expansion in the region

In recent years, Russia emerged as the security partner of choice for a growing number of governments in the region, displacing traditional allies such as France and the U.S.

Moscow aggressively expanded its military cooperation by using mercenaries like Wagner, who have operated in at least half a dozen countries since around 2017. They’re tasked with protecting African leaders and in some cases helping fight rebels and extremists.

They’re also beset by their human-rights record. In Central African Republic, mercenaries train the army on torture tactics, including how to cut hands and burn people alive, according to watchdog The Sentry.

Central African Republic was one of the first places the mercenaries entered. The country has been in conflict since 2013, when predominantly Muslim rebels seized power and forced the president from office. A 2019 peace deal hasn’t fully stopped the fighting. Locals and the government credited Wagner with fighting back rebels who tried to overtake Bangui, the capital, in 2021. The Russians soon expanded to Burkina Faso and Niger.

Russia has ambitions for further growth

Russia is refurbishing a military base some 50 miles (80 kilometers) from Bangui. Alexander Bikantov, Russia’s ambassador to Central African Republic, said the base will improve the country’s security.

Fidele Gouandjika, adviser to President Faustin-Archange Touadera, said the base aims to have 10,000 fighters by 2030 to engage with more African nations.

The U.S. is putting on pressure

The U.S. had been pushing Central African Republic to find an alternative to Wagner for years. A December 2022 private meeting sought ways to improve security without the mercenaries but yielded little tangible progress, according to a U.S. official who is familiar with the meeting and spoke on condition of anonymity due to the privacy of ongoing discussions.

Still, the State Department said in a statement early this year that it wasn’t involved in the decision to establish Bancroft Global Development’s presence in Central African Republic.

“If the U.S. can’t regain a foothold, it could give Russia greater economic and political leverage,” said Samuel Ramani of the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank. “If Russia loses Central African Republic, its flagship model on the continent, there could be a domino effect in other countries.”

Bancroft has worked in Africa for years

Washington-based Bancroft is a nonprofit working in nine countries — five in Africa. Its longest-standing presence is in Somalia, where it’s operated for more than 15 years, in part training troops to fight the militant group al-Shabab.

Much of Bancroft’s overall funding has come from U.S. and United Nations grants.

Amal Ali, former U.S. intelligence analyst, is among some experts who criticize Bancroft’s work, calling out a lack of progress in Somalia. Despite a yearslong presence, Ali said, Bancroft hasn’t contributed to any real eradication of terrorism.

Stock dismissed such comments as uninformed and said the Somali and U.S. governments “agree Bancroft has done a great deal.”

Bancroft arrived amid rumors

Bancroft’s involvement in Central African Republic has been shrouded in secrecy since signs emerged last fall.

During a visit by AP, rumors swirled about Bancroft’s activities, fueling speculation the U.S was bringing its own Wagner to oust Russia.

But according to Bancroft founder Michael Stock, the group entered at Bangui’s behest.

Bancroft’s founder spoke to AP about the deal

In his first interview since Bancroft began operating there, Stock told The Associated Press that President Touadera felt his Russian partners were “underperforming and distracted.”

Touadera thought diversifying partners would prompt Russia to get in line and give the Americans what they wanted, Stock said.

The two signed a deal in September, he said.

Fewer than 30 Bancroft personnel work there, Stock said, helping with intelligence systems, interagency cooperation and law enforcement.

There’s been backlash on the ground

In months following the Bancroft deal in Central African Republic, aggression toward Americans and U.S. entities continued. Several American citizens were detained and had their passports confiscated, a diplomat who dealt with their cases said on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t allowed to speak to reporters.

Presidential adviser Gouandjika said the government has no problem with Americans and those denied entry lacked proper paperwork.

Also, rare anti-American protests erupted outside the U.S. embassy in Bangui, and local youths formed the Committee to Investigate U.S. Activities to monitor Bancroft’s movements.

The future is unclear

As the U.S. and Russia jockey for power, African governments say they want to make their own choices.

Central African Republic officials approached Bancroft, which shows that these governments haven’t become Russian puppets, said Jack Margolin, an expert on private military companies.

But, he added, Russia’s reaction to Bancroft could hurt Moscow’s standing with other nations.