Finding a strong candidate for governor in Pennsylvania may help GOP protect its US House majority

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Job No. 1 for Republicans in Pennsylvania is to scrounge up a candidate to contest next year’s reelection bid by Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro — if only to run interference for other Republicans on the ballot who are clinging to seats in Congress.

In other words, the unalluring mission of next year’s Republican gubernatorial nominee could be just to not get blown out by the relatively popular incumbent. That’s because a lopsided victory by Shapiro could otherwise doom Republicans up and down Pennsylvania’s ballot — and, with them, the GOP’s narrow majority in the U.S. House that backs President Donald Trump’s agenda.

That’s one more reason Pennsylvania could again find itself at the center of attention, even during the midterms and even if the GOP faces long odds against beating Shapiro. Democrats are targeting four GOP-held congressional seats in Pennsylvania alone — more than in any other state — and they need to flip only three seats nationwide to retake the majority they lost in 2022.

Having a valuable standard-bearer is important, analysts say. That is the candidate who often sets the tone for the party in the state, delivers the party’s message and drives the enthusiasm of the party’s faithful to go out and vote.

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Republicans had Trump atop their ticket in 2024, and he proved formidable in Pennsylvania. Next year, it will be Democrats with a familiar name leading the way, and he, too, brings considerable heft.

Shapiro has won three statewide races, is working to sustain his robust public approval ratings and carries a reputation as a disciplined messenger and powerhouse fundraiser who is on the party’s shortlist for top White House contenders in 2028.

He’ll run at what could be a difficult time for Republicans. During a midterm election, the party of the president — in this case, Trump — typically loses seats in what pollsters describe as a political readjustment by an electorate that tends to punish the status quo.

“The big question I have is, ‘Would you as a Republican thinking about this office want to choose 2026 as the time you want to make that run?’” said Christopher Borick, a pollster and director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. “You’re thinking, ‘Well I want to be governor,’ but you’re thinking, ‘I have to first take on a well-funded incumbent who’s never lost a race in the state, and I have to do it in a period where my party is facing headwinds.’”

The four Republican congressmen in Pennsylvania being targeted by Democrats are Rob Bresnahan, Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry.

Fitzpatrick and Perry are survivors of repeated challenges. Bresnahan and Mackenzie are freshmen.

Fitzpatrick is one of just three House Republicans nationally to represent a district won by Democrat Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential election. He won by 13 percentage points.

But Perry, Bresnahan and Mackenzie each won by 1.6 percentage points or less, putting their victories among the narrowest of 2024.

Those victories came without political headwinds on a GOP ticket led by Trump, who carried battleground Pennsylvania by nearly 2 percentage points.

Plus, Republicans lost a slew of seats in Pennsylvania the last two times an incumbent Democratic governor ran for reelection in midterms with a Republican president.

There’s also this to consider: Shapiro won all four districts when he won his 2022 contest by almost 15 percentage points. Republicans would rather forget that election, when the party nominated a relative political novice who ran an insular, ham-handed campaign — and got blown out.

It’s going to be “super-important” for Republicans’ down-ballot races to have a strong top-of-the-ticket candidate, said Bob Salera, a Republican campaign strategist who has worked on campaigns for governor in Pennsylvania.

But, Republicans acknowledge, Shapiro enters the race from a position of strength.

“He’s turning into a national figure, so he’ll have all the money possible at his disposal to win in 2026,” Salera said. “He’s a formidable candidate, for certain, and it’ll take a formidable Republican to beat him.”

Defeating Shapiro is obviously the GOP’s preference. But a competitive race could at least protect other Republicans and damage Shapiro’s popularity in Pennsylvania enough to pay dividends in the next presidential contest.

“Josh Shapiro is a fairly strong candidate,” said Bill Bretz, the GOP chair of heavily Republican Westmoreland County. “He’s someone we need to identify the chink in the armor here and need to set back his candidacy for governor so that we can set him back in 2028.”

In any case, it’s a little early for that conversation, Bretz said.

No Republican has declared a candidacy for the GOP nomination, and, for now, two in particular say they’re considering it.

One is U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser, who hails from a Trump-friendly congressional district in northeastern Pennsylvania. At Trump’s rally at a U.S. Steel plant last month, Trump singled out Meuser in the crowd and said nice things about him.

“He’s been a great congressman, and if you run, you have my support totally, and you’ll win,” Trump said. Meuser said he’ll decide by July 1.

The other is state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, a two-time statewide winner who has campaigned for other Republicans all over Pennsylvania but has raised only a fraction of the money Shapiro did while winning two low-profile races.

All told, Democrats have put a target on 35 Republican-held House districts, needing to flip just three to transform a 220-215 majority into a minority.

All four of the targeted Republicans in Pennsylvania voted last month for Trump’s big tax cut and spending bill, helping it pass by one vote — a vote that Democrats say will cost them.

For his part, Shapiro smashed Pennsylvania’s campaign spending record in 2022, and he’s running for reelection in a state that’s friendly to incumbent governors.

Shapiro’s most recent public approval ratings resemble those of a candidate who’ll cruise to reelection, said Berwood Yost, a pollster and director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall College.

Shapiro unified the party and its allies behind his candidacy in 2022, after winning two statewide elections for attorney general.

Shapiro has ably managed the levers of state government and avoided any major scandal. He has raised his profile nationally, including making Harris’ shortlist of vice presidential running mates, and kept his grip on party unity.

For a candidate to run against Shapiro, there aren’t many incentives, Yost said. Timing can be everything in a successful — or unsuccessful — political career, he said.

“You never know what’s going to happen, but you’re signing up for something you know will be incredibly challenging,” Yost said. “You have to wonder, if you’re an ambitious politician, timing is important.

“Maybe you wait this one out. There’s always another statewide race.”

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This story has been corrected to show that President Donald Trump spoke at a U.S. Steel plant in May, not June, and that Democrats lost the U.S. House majority in 2022, not 2024.

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Follow Marc Levy on X at: https://x.com/timelywriter.