Little to no relief from high borrowing costs expected as Fed Chair Powell heads to the Hill

WASHINGTON (AP) — The odds of further interest rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve dwindled last week as unemployment fell and more officials say they want to see how new policies from the White House affect the economy.

While Fed officials penciled in two rate cuts this year at their December meeting, economists and Wall Street investors are increasingly skeptical, with some predicting no reductions at all this year. On Friday, economists at Morgan Stanley said they now expect just one rate cut in 2025, and investors also expect just one — in July — according to pricing in futures markets.

Fewer cuts could translate into a longer period of elevated mortgage rates and high costs to borrow money for everything from autos to credit cards. Still, mortgage rates are closely tied to the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which can move independently of the Fed’s actions.

The shifting expectations come as Chair Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill for two days of testimony this week, beginning Tuesday, before House and Senate committees that oversee the central bank and the financial industry. Fed chairs are required by law to appear before Congress twice a year.

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Members of Congress may urge that he cut rates more quickly. He will also likely be grilled about issues that are taking a higher profile under the Trump administration, such as crypto regulation, banking regulation, and allegations of “de-banking.”

De-banking is the practice of banks shutting down customer accounts because they believe they pose financial, legal or reputational risks to the banks. Some crypto executives have charged that Biden administration regulators pressured financial firms to target their industry for de-banking.

Regarding interest rates, Fed officials have suggested recently that after cutting their key rate three times at the end of last year — to about 4.3%, down from two-decade high of 5.3% — they are likely to be on hold for an extended period, though none will specify how long that might be.

On Friday, Fed governor Adriana Kugler said that the labor market was “stable” and that “gives us a little bit of time to make some decisions.” She noted that inflation has “moved sideways” since the fall and is above their 2% target.

She added that potential policy changes from the Trump administration have added uncertainty to their outlook for the economy. Economists have said that widespread tariffs, and the deportation of immigrants that Trump has also promised, could push up inflation. Others argue that Trump’s deregulatory policies could, by increasing supply, reduce prices.

“The cautious and the prudent step is to hold the (Fed’s key) rate where it is for some time,” Kugler said. “Given that the economy is solid, given the fact that we haven’t achieved our 2% target, and given the fact that we may have uncertainties and other factors that may be pushing up inflation.”

Separately, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Fed’s Chicago branch, said in an exclusive interview with The Associated Press Friday that he still expects the central bank’s rate will be lower in the next 12 to 18 months than it is now. But he also said it makes sense for the Fed to take a slower approach as it nears a point where it may stop reducing rates.

He also noted that the prospect of tariffs has muddied the waters a bit for the Fed in the coming months. Tariffs may cause a one-time increase in prices but don’t necessarily cause ongoing inflation.

As a result, Goolsbee said, Fed officials will have to sort through any price increases that do occur to determine whether they are one-time changes, or a reflection of persistent inflationary pressures.

“That’s not that easy to do, it’s going to take time to figure that out,” he said. “We’ve still just got to wait for the dust to clear.”

Other officials also suggested that it will take time for the Fed to determine what steps it needs to take next.

Lorie Logan, president of the Fed’s Dallas branch, said Thursday that while in “some scenarios” the Fed may soon cut rates, it’s also possible “we’ll need to hold rates at least at the current level for quite some time.”

Even if inflation were to fall close to the 2% target, she added, that wouldn’t necessarily mean the Fed should “cut rates soon.” Instead, with the economy mostly healthy and hiring holding up, the Fed’s key rate may already be close to the level at which it doesn’t restrict or stimulate growth, she said — a level that economists refer to as the “neutral rate.”

The government said Friday that employers added a solid number of jobs last month while the unemployment rate ticked down for the second straight month to 4%, historically quite low. Hiring in November and December was revised much higher.

Steady hiring and a mostly-healthy job market suggest that there is less of an urgent need for the Fed to reduce borrowing rates. It implemented a steep half-point cut in September after weak hiring over the summer spurred fears that the economy was stumbling, possibly into recession.

The jobs report “bolsters our confidence that the Fed cutting cycle is over,” economists at Bank of America wrote in a note Friday.