MLB’s .300 hitters become endangered species in era of dominant pitching
MLB’s .300 hitters become endangered species in era of dominant pitching
FILE - Kansas City Royals’ Drew Waters reacts after striking out against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning of a baseball game, Saturday, July 20, 2024, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
FILE - San Francisco Giants’ Jerar Encarnacion walks back to the dugout after striking out to end a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks in San Francisco, Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024. (Scott Strazzante/San Francisco Chronicle via AP, File, File, File)/San Francisco Chronicle via AP)
FILE - Tampa Bay Rays’ Dylan Carlson reacts after striking out during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio, File)
FILE - Kansas City Royals’ Drew Waters reacts after striking out against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning of a baseball game, Saturday, July 20, 2024, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
FILE - Kansas City Royals’ Drew Waters reacts after striking out against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning of a baseball game, Saturday, July 20, 2024, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
FILE - San Francisco Giants’ Jerar Encarnacion walks back to the dugout after striking out to end a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks in San Francisco, Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024. (Scott Strazzante/San Francisco Chronicle via AP, File, File, File)/San Francisco Chronicle via AP)
FILE - San Francisco Giants’ Jerar Encarnacion walks back to the dugout after striking out to end a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks in San Francisco, Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024. (Scott Strazzante/San Francisco Chronicle via AP, File, File, File)/San Francisco Chronicle via AP)
FILE - Tampa Bay Rays’ Dylan Carlson reacts after striking out during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio, File)
FILE - Tampa Bay Rays’ Dylan Carlson reacts after striking out during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio, File)
NEW YORK (AP) — A .300 hitter has become an endangered species, a victim of increased velocity as 100 mph heaters are no longer rarities.
“When I got in the league, I’d still see a lot of guys throwing 89, 91,” Baltimore Orioles All-Star slugger Anthony Santander said.
Not anymore.
The major league batting average is on track to finish at .243 or .244, depending on the final weekend of the season, down from .248 last year. Three of the last four years are among the six lowest batting averages since the end of the Dead Ball Era, joined by 1967, 1968 and 1972.
The minor league average is down, too, to .242 from .249 last year.
Four-seam fastballs have averaged a record 94.3 mph, up 0.1 mph from last season and 91.9 mph when tracking began in 2008.
“Reaction time is a lot less when everybody is throwing harder,” Philadelphia outfielder Nick Castellanos said. “Your intent has to be ready for a certain spot. ... Coming up, when a guy was 89, 91, there was more of a window to see and react.”
Just seven qualified batters were on track to hit .300 or better entering the final weekend, one more than the record low in 1968, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. That was down from nine last year, 11 in 2022 and 14 in 2021.
There were 34 in 2008 and 55 in 1999 during the Steroids Era.
Luis Arraez’s .312 average would be the lowest for an NL batting champion.
“You see electric arms all the time,” Mets star Pete Alonso said. “You see guys every day that throw 97, 98, 99.”
Yet the four-seam fastball use has dropped to 31.7%, the lowest since tracking started. Cut fastballs have increased to 8% from 4.8% in 2008, and many pitchers have developed larger repertoires.
“Because the technology, pitch tracking, this and that, guys now have a really good understanding of how to manipulate their breaking balls,” Alonso said. “Guys have sweepers, sliders, cutters. Used to be guys would only have one or two off-speed pitches — now they have three or four.”
Major League Baseball’s imposition of a 13-pitcher maximum on active rosters in 2022 has slowed the trend toward bullpen use. Average innings for starting pitchers dropped from 6.0 in 2011 to 5.0 in 2021 and has rebounded slightly to 5.2 this season.
Pitchers per team per game has risen from 3.9 from 2008-11 to 4.3 this season, down from a high of 4.4 in 2018, ’19 and ’21.
MLB hoped to increase offense by implementing limits on defensive shifts in 2023. This year’s batting average was depressed by a drop in the first month of the season: the average through April, impacted by cold weather, was .239, down from .249 through April in 2023.
“Everything’s harder, just top to bottom: Starters, bullpens. It seems like everyone’s throwing hard,” Pittsburgh All-Star Bryan Reynolds said. “There’s starting to pop up some places that will analyze your swing and supposedly give you the best bats for your specific swing. But pitchers definitely have more at their disposal in terms of things they can see about their pitches and things they can easily change to make each better.”
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