NFL’s expansion to an 18-game regular season seems inevitable: Analysis

On Football analyzes the biggest topics in the NFL from week to week. For more On Football analysis, head here.

___

An 18-game NFL season seems inevitable.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has already stated he favors expanding the regular season by another game. Now, NFLPA executive director Lloyd Howell says the players’ union is open to an agreement before the current labor deal expires after the 2030 season.

“We have talked at a very, very, very high level superficially, with a recognition. ... about, ‘Yeah, this is something that we should be talking about. And we should really kick the tires and understand what else goes into that decision-making process,’” Howell told Washington Post reporters and editors during a meeting Monday at the NFLPA’s headquarters in Washington, D.C. “Where does the 18th game come from? I think the foregone conclusion is well, you just grab it, like, in what would otherwise be (preseason games) in August. You play it forward. But these are details that really need to be fleshed out. But, again, there are other economic, health and safety matters that also need to be clear to our members before there’s ever an agreement about an 18th game.”

Not PARSE.LY:

Tagovailoa carves up Pats with 4 TDs, Dolphins win 3rd straight game with 34-15 rout of New England

 

Pieter-Steph du Toit and Ellie Kildunne named world rugby’s best players

 

Jannik Sinner’s 2024: 2 Slam Grand titles, a doping case and a Davis Cup title for Italy

 

Of course, it’s going to take a lot of convincing to get most of the league’s players on board with another game. But the NFL usually gets what the NFL wants. The league persuaded the union to allow a 17th game in the last round of CBA discussions and the schedule was expanded in 2021.

Many players felt the NFLPA should have extracted more concessions during the last labor negotiations so the 2020 CBA only passed by a slim margin of votes, 1,019 to 959.

More games equals more money for everyone. Ultimately, more money gets most deals done in sports and business.

Under the current CBA, the players’ share of league revenue increased from 47% to 48% starting in 2021. A “media kicker” that went into effect with the 17-game regular-season schedule grew that share to 48.5% based on an increase in revenue from the league’s new television contracts. The maximum amount the players’ could’ve reached was 48.8%. They’re going to want at least 50% to add another game.

“The simple fact of the matter is when you have a growing enterprise and there are opportunities within that intervening period of time where progress could be made and you could tweak the existing CBA legal document, why wouldn’t you want to do that?” Howell told the Post’s staff. “So whether it’s field surface, whether it’s the (offseason) schedule, if you want to call that formal — I call it bargaining. I call it amendments. I call it updates to what is now a living document called a CBA. Yeah, I want to be able to have our membership in a position to jump on it when we can, not wait until their playing days are done and it’s like you go through the cycle all over again.”

The preseason schedule decreased from four games to three when the 17th game was added. It would likely drop to two for an 18th game. Many coaches would have a problem with that because it limits opportunities for younger players to gain game experience and earn roster spots in some cases.

“If you reduce a preseason game, you have all these young guys you’re trying to develop, and you have to have them every year,” Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “You look at what we were able to do with some of our young guys last year, and how important they were to us winning, but there’s a process to it. If you don’t get them developed or get them enough reps to where they help you, then — that’s the only thing. That’s what you lose, so there again, we’ll make it work. It’s a long season right now, and we’ll make it work either way.”

Many players already want the league to add another bye week because playing football is physically demanding and they want more time to rest and heal their bodies. That extra bye would have to be a major part of negotiations.

“Eighteen games is definitely a big ask. That’s not easy adding that extra game,” Cincinnati Bengals star quarterback Joe Burrow said. “Obviously, it would be great for revenue, but I feel like adding that bye week, if you’re going to have the 18-game schedule, is pretty critical for our bodies. If you keep that first bye week, and some teams have the bye in Week 5, Week 6, and then you’re going 12, 13 games in a row, that’s not easy. Probably a Thursday night game thrown in there, too, so that’s never easy. Those two byes are pretty critical.”

Beyond getting more money through a larger revenue share and an extra game check and an additional bye, the union could seek lifetime healthcare for players. Currently, vested players — guys with at least three credited seasons — receive five additional years of benefits after retirement.

Eliminating funding rules to help make guaranteed contracts more feasible could be another priority for the NFLPA. The current CBA requires owners to pre-fund contract guarantees by putting the entire sum in escrow. Teams argue they can’t fully guarantee contracts because of that financial commitment.

“Our membership is interested in a myriad of things before we even get to the number of games: health and safety, field surface, OTA makeup, compensation, what percent of their annual compensation is guaranteed,” Howell told the Post. “So there are many things before we get to (the) 18th game. … It’s a negotiable point.”

Reducing the preseason schedule to two games and adding an 18th game and a second bye means the Super Bowl would take place on President’s Day weekend — a dream scenario for the NFL.

“I mean, 18 games seems kind of lofty right now. ... It just would depend on things,” New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin said. “You hear about how the offseason might change with OTAs and just kind of coming back at the beginning of July or the end of June and just going all the way through the year. I guess there’s just so many variables in how they structure that that’ll determine, and you’re not going to know if you like it until you do it. And once you do it, there’s no going back. So, I guess whatever happens, you control what you can control and we’ll do it.”

___

AP Pro Football Writers Josh Dubow and Dennis Waszak contributed.

___

AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl