Romania braces for crossroads presidential runoff viewed as a choice between East or West

BUCHAREST, Romania (AP) — As Romania braces for a high-stakes presidential runoff this weekend between two starkly different candidates, 25-year-old medical resident Alexandra Bejinariu is anxious about which direction her European Union nation will choose in the closely watched vote.

Like many voters, the young medic views Sunday’s ballot between hard-right nationalist frontrunner George Simion and pro-Western reformist and incumbent Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan as a choice for the country’s geopolitical future.

It’s a choice between “East or West,” she told The Associated Press in Bucharest. “It has divided my family, my relatives, my friends,” she said.

Romania is gripped by a deep political crisis after a top court voided the previous election in which the far-right outsider Calin Georgescu topped the first round, following allegations of electoral violations and Russian interference, which Moscow has denied.

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A nation divided by election crisis

Deep societal divisions have been exposed during Romania’s chaotic election cycle, and Bejinariu said she fears that a Simion presidency would undermine Romania’s long-standing Western alliances. “I think it’s a big risk,” she said.

“It has to change, but I don’t know in what direction it will change,” she added. “I hope that our future will be good … it really gives me anxiety this election.”

After coming fourth in last year’s canceled race, Simion, the 38-year-old leader of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, or AUR, backed Georgescu who was banned in March from standing in the redo. Simion then surged to frontrunner in the May 4 rerun after becoming the standard-bearer for the hard right.

Years of endemic corruption and growing anger toward Romania’s political establishment has fueled a surge in support for nationalist figures, reflecting a broader pattern seen across Europe.

The AUR party says it stand for “family, nation, faith, and freedom” and rose to prominence in a 2020 parliamentary election. It has since grown to become the second-largest party in the Romanian legislature.

To his critics, Simion is a pro-Russian extremist who threatens Romania’s longstanding alliances in the European Union and NATO. But in an AP interview last week, he rejected the accusations, saying Russia is his country’s biggest threat, and that he wants Romania to be treated as “equal partners” in Brussels.

“Some fake news were saying that we want to exit the European project,” he said. “Tough luck.”

Local surveys indicate a tight race

Most recent local surveys indicate the runoff has narrowed to a near tie, after earlier ones showed Simion holding a lead over Dan, a 55-year-old mathematician who rose to prominence as a civic activist fighting against illegal real estate projects.

Dan founded the reformist Save Romania Union party in 2016 but later left, and is running independently on a pro-EU ticket, reaffirming Western ties, support for Ukraine, and fiscal reform. At a rally in Bucharest on Sunday, he also addressed the growing tensions.

“How did it come to this, that in a country with hardworking, decent people, there is so much hatred and division, that families and circles of friends are torn apart over political opinions,” he said. “We need to project hope.”

Simion, also a former activist who campaigned for reunification with neighboring Moldova, says he would focus on reforms: slashing red tape, reducing bureaucracy and taxes. But he insists that his main goal is to restore democracy. “My platform is to return to democracy, to the will of the people,” he said.

The presidential role carries a five-year term and significant decision-making powers in national security and foreign policy.

A choice for geopolitical future

Siegfried Muresan, a Romanian member of the European Parliament, told the AP that Sunday’s vote is the first election since communism ended in which Romania’s geopolitical orientation is at stake.

“The election is about choosing between the European model, the European way of life, which is based on democracy, freedom of expression, freedom of press, rule of law, development, unity, solidarity,” he said. “And the Russian model, which is the exact opposite — it’s more than just the presidential election.”

In a local televised debate last week, Simion railed against EU officials whom he called the “globalists in Brussels,” and voiced admiration for Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a longtime critic of the 27-nation bloc.

“That is precisely why many of his positions, not all … will be state policy in Romania,” said Simion, who opposes further military aid to neighboring Ukraine or sending troops from NATO countries to protect any peace agreements, fearing escalation.

Simion’s activities in Moldova led to allegations he was trying to destabilize the country and a ban on his entry there. He is also banned from entering Ukraine for “systemic anti-Ukrainian” activities.

Moldova’s pro-Western President Maia Sandu posted a public message this week in support of Dan, saying Moldovans understand the value of being “part of the European family,” and urged Moldovans with dual Romanian citizenship to vote to ”protect what Romania has already achieved, but which is now under threat.”

Turnout could decide vote outcome

In the first round on May 4, Simion won a massive 61% of Romania’s large diaspora vote, with his calls to patriotism resonating with Romanians who moved abroad in search of better opportunities.

Claudiu Tufis, an associate professor of political science at the University of Bucharest, says Sunday’s result will likely boil down to turnout, which is often higher in the second round vote. “Turnout will be the key,” he said. He added that Simion lacks adequate experience for high office and fears he would quickly target civil society organizations.

“That is a significant problem,” he said. “What is driving him is his focus on identity politics. He has absolutely no experience when it comes to foreign policy ... economy, and no experience when it comes to public administration.”

For energy sector worker Rares Ghiorghies, 36, Simion represents a new form of patriotic conservatism that he feels is needed to overhaul an outdated political class.

“I think about freedom, dignity, equal rights for everyone, prosperity, and healthy principles, not what we have now: manipulation, censorship, and incompetence in everything related to the state system,” he said.

“We need a role model, a patriot who knows that you can achieve more with your heart than with your brain,” Ghiorghies said.

Tensions in society are being further amplified online, where networks of coordinated disinformation have emerged as a pervasive force through the entire election cycle.

Disinformation deluge ramps up for runoff

Cyabra, an AI-powered platform that studies online influence campaigns, analyzed hundreds of comments on both candidates’ official X accounts after the first round, and concluded that a large percentage came from fake accounts.

Those posts reached a peak on the day of the election and the day after in what appeared to be a synchronized campaign, the group said, with most of them criticizing Dan using rhetoric such as “foreign puppet,” or praising Simion with slogans such as “Well done, Romania!”

Andrei Grajdeanu, a 34-year-old dental technician, says he feels Romanians were long divided but that social media has exposed the division.

“I think everybody needs to go to the vote to express their opinion, and that’s it,” he said. “Don’t fight with family, friends, or each other.”