South Africa's president faces his party's worst election ever. He'll still likely be reelected

South Africa’s president faces his party’s worst election ever. He’ll still likely be reelected

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa adresses African National Congress supporters at the Siyanqoba rally at FNB stadium in Johannesburg, South Africa, Saturday, May 25, 2024. South African will vote in the 2024 general elections May 29. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay)

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A man cycles past an Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) poster with the face of its leader Julius Malema, in Benoni, east of Johannesburg, South Africa, Monday, May 27, 2024. South Africans who received special permission to vote early were casting their ballots on Monday, ahead of main elections on Wednesday, May, 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

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Emandleni informal settlement in Benoni, east of Johannesburg, South Africa, Monday, May 27, 2024. South Africans who received special permission to vote early were casting their ballots on Monday, ahead of main elections on Wednesday, May, 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

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African National Congress supporters wait for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to arrive at the Siyanqoba rally at FNB stadium in Johannesburg, South Africa, Saturday, May 25, 2024. South African will vote in the 2024 general elections on May 29. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay)

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa greets African National Congress supporters at the Siyanqoba rally at FNB stadium in Johannesburg, South Africa, Saturday, May 25, 2024. South African will vote in the 2024 general elections on May 29. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay)

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Worshippers of Intokozo Yamakrestu Church in Christ pray as they prepare for baptism on a Durban beach, South Africa, Monday, May 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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Ballots on view at a polling station during an especial voting day at Zibambeleni old age home in KwaDadeka, near Durban, South Africa, Monday, May 27, 2024. South Africans who received special permission to vote early were casting their ballots on Monday, ahead of main elections on May. 29. The special voting is for registered voters who are unable to travel to a voting station because of physical challenges such as disability, pregnancy or advanced age. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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Main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) party leader, John Steenhuisen, delivers his speech at a final election rally in Benoni, South Africa, Sunday, May 26, 2024. South Africans will vote in the 2024 general elections on May 29. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

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Electoral workers put up signs to indicate a polling station at Zibambeleni old age home in KwaDadeka, near Durban, South Africa, Monday, May 27, 2024. South Africans who received special permission to vote early were casting their ballots on Monday, ahead of main elections on May. 29. The special voting is for registered voters who are unable to travel to a voting station because of physical challenges such as disability, pregnancy or advanced age. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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Supporters of the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) party attend a final election rally in Benoni, South Africa, Sunday, May 26, 2024. South Africa’s four main political parties began the final weekend of campaigning Saturday before a possibly pivotal election that could bring the country’s most important change in three decades. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

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Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), leader Julius at a final election rally in Polokwane, South Africa, Saturday, May 25, 2024. South African will vote in the 2024 general elections May 29. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

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Dube Qalo, 69, waits to cast her vote during an especial voting day at Zibambeleni old age home in KwaDadeka, near Durban, South Africa, Monday, May 27, 2024. South Africans who received special permission to vote early were casting their ballots on Monday, ahead of main elections on May. 29. The special voting is for registered voters who are unable to travel to a voting station because of physical challenges such as disability, pregnancy or advanced age. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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A military officer rolls up a poster of former South African President Jacob Zuma during an election meeting in Durban, South Africa, Saturday, May 25, 2024, in anticipation of the 2024 general elections scheduled for May 29. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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FILE - Former South African President Jacob Zuma, centre, arrives at Orlando stadium in Soweto, Johannesburg, South Africa, for the launch of his newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party’s manifesto launch on May 18, 2024. South Africans will vote Wednesday to decide whether their country will take its most significant political step since the moment 30 years ago when it brought down apartheid and achieved democracy. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay, File)

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A man fills out a ballot paper before casting it during an especial voting day at Zibambeleni old age home in KwaDadeka, near Durban, South Africa, Monday, May 27, 2024. South Africans who received special permission to vote early were casting their ballots on Monday, ahead of main elections on May. 29. The special voting is for registered voters who are unable to travel to a voting station because of physical challenges such as disability, pregnancy or advanced age. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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Men plays billiards in downtown Durban , South Africa, Monday, May 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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An entertainer sings from the stage as supporters of Inkatha Freedom Party attend an election rally in Richards Bay, near Durban, South Africa, Sunday, May 26, 2024, in anticipation of the 2024 general elections scheduled for May 29. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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Supporters of the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) party attend a final election rally in Benoni, South Africa, Sunday, May 26, 2024. South African will vote in the 2024 general elections May 29. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

By GERALD IMRAY

CAPE TOWN, South Africa (AP) — South African President Cyril Ramaphosa faces the prospect of his ruling party’s worst election result ever. Yet he’s still likely to be reelected as leader of Africa’s most advanced country after Wednesday’s national vote.

While several polls have support for his African National Congress at below 50% ahead of the election, putting it in danger of losing its majority for the first time in South Africa’s 30 years of democracy, the ANC is still widely expected to win the most Parliament seats. The growing opposition to the ANC is split among several parties.

That will likely mean Ramaphosa stays for a second and final five-year term, though it might not be straightforward. Parliament decides who the president is and the ANC may not have a majority of lawmakers. Also, a sharp drop in votes for the ANC would put Ramaphosa under pressure within party ranks. The ANC has a history of withdrawing support for its party leader in times of trouble, resulting in them stepping down as president.

Here’s a look at the 71-year-old Ramaphosa and his future.

MANDELA’S PROTEGE

Ramaphosa was seen as a protege of Nelson Mandela, who led the ANC to victory in the momentous 1994 election that ended the apartheid system of white minority rule and established South Africa as a democracy. Ramaphosa lost the internal ANC battle to succeed Mandela as president when the aging anti-apartheid icon stepped down after one term in 1999 — even though Mandela was thought to favor Ramaphosa.

Instead, Ramaphosa left politics to become one of South Africa’s richest businessmen.

RETURN TO POLITICS

Ramaphosa returned to politics by being elected deputy president of the ANC in 2012. He was appointed deputy president of the country in 2014 under former President Jacob Zuma. Using the same internal party machinery that saw him overlooked before, he won the leadership of the ANC in 2017. Zuma stepped down as president of South Africa two months later under a cloud of corruption allegations and Ramaphosa took over. He was elected for his first proper term in 2019.

He promised to end the corruption that had plagued the ANC during the Zuma administration and boost a struggling economy and failing government services, although that has not been easy. South Africa still has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, and nationwide electricity blackouts in 2022 and 2023 due to mismanagement at the state-owned utility badly damaged Ramaphosa’s reputation.

PARLIAMENT’S DECISION

Lawmakers in Parliament decide on South Africa’s president, and this election could bring something new to that process. South Africans vote in national elections for parties and those parties send lawmakers to the 400-member Parliament according to their share of the vote. The lawmakers then elect the president.

Every South African president since 1994 has been from the ANC because of its parliamentary majority, but if it drops below 50% in this election, it would need another party or parties to vote with it to get the required numbers in Parliament to reelect Ramapohosa.

FUTURE AS PRESIDENT

There are three possible scenarios for Ramaphosa:

If the ANC keeps its majority against expectations, he will likely be reelected without trouble by his party’s lawmakers. The ANC won 57.5% of the vote in the last national election in 2019, leading to Ramaphosa’s first term.

If the ANC drops just below 50%, it may seek a coalition with several smaller parties to get the needed votes in Parliament for Ramaphosa to continue as president.

If the ANC’s share is well below 50% and closer to 40%, it’s more complicated. The ANC may have to approach one of the bigger opposition parties for a coalition and that would involve much more wrangling. A significant drop in support would also affect Ramaphosa’s authority within the ANC.

It’s notable that no South African president since 1994 has served their full two terms in office. Mandela stepped down to hand over the reins, and Thabo Mbeki and Zuma both resigned before their final term ended due to a loss of support within the ANC.

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AP Africa news: https://apnews.com/hub/africa