What options does Maduro have after Venezuela’s contested presidential election?
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro holds a small copy of the constitution as he gives a news conference at Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela, Wednesday, July 31, 2024, three days after his disputed reelection. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — The world’s democracies have almost unanimously condemned the results of Venezuela’s presidential election and called for a transparent vote count to confirm what the opposition says was its landslide victory over President Nicolás Maduro.
Two of Maduro’s closest allies — the leftist presidents of Brazil and Colombia — have recently joined a chorus of nations, including the U.S., that have expressed deep concerns about Sunday’s presidential election, which Venezuelan electoral authorities said the president won by seven points.
Maduro, however, has so far only dug in: claiming victory, jailing opponents and threatening to arrest his rival, Edmundo González. The opposition says González trounced the self-proclaimed socialist leader at the ballot box by a more than 2-to-1 margin.
As the electoral standoff moves into unchartered territory, here are some of Maduro’s options:
Election redo
The window for Maduro to back down is narrowing with every hour. The National Electoral Council has already proclaimed him the official winner.
If he does rethink his future, options range from resigning the presidency to ordering a redo of the election with international observers present to assure the vote has more credibility. Any such development could arise only from intense negotiations with the opposition and the United States about a power-sharing arrangement and protection from prosecution for Maduro and his allies.
But so far, Maduro has only doubled down. His government says it has arrested 700 people tied to post-election violence. At least 11 people have died in demonstrations nationwide.
“He’s counting on being able to wait this out and people will get tired of demonstrating,” said Cynthia Arnson, a distinguished fellow at the Wilson Center, a Washington think tank. “The problem is the country is in a death spiral and there’s no chance the economy will be able to recover without the legitimacy that comes from a fair election.”
No exit ramp
One major obstacle is that Maduro has much to lose from any political transition.
He’s facing an investigation for human rights abuses at the International Criminal Court over the crackdown on anti-government protests in 2014 and 2017. Meanwhile, the U.S. has offered a $15 million bounty for his arrest on drug-trafficking charges.
Even if Maduro was willing to step aside, many of his allies, including the top military command, face criminal charges of their own and may limit any dealmaking.
“He probably feels his base case for exit options land somewhere between a long stint at The Hague and being hanged by piano wire in Plaza Bolivar,” said Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, a Venezuelan born political analyst and founder of Aurora Macro Strategies, a geopolitical risk consulting firm focused on emerging markets. “So the only option becomes to lock into the lie.”
Foreign leverage
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been out front seeking a de-escalation of the conflict, recognizing what’s at stake not just for the ruling elite but the 29 million Venezuelans in the country.
“Maduro knows perfectly well that the more transparency there is, the greater his chance of having peace to govern Venezuela,” he said this week.
Other leftists that have tried to appeal to Maduro include President Gustavo Petro of Colombia — which has a myriad of commercial interests with its neighbor — and Pablo Iglesias, one of the founders of the Spanish political party Podemos, a close ally of Maduro.
However, the country with the real leverage is the United States. Since Maduro’s last election, the U.S. has piled on a number of punishing oil sanctions, closed its embassy in Caracas and indicted Maduro and several of his top aides. For more than a year, the Biden administration has slowly been walking back the so-called “maximum pressure” campaign in the hope that Maduro would open up more political space.
Although the Biden administration has called for a thorough audit so Venezuelans can have confidence in the results, it has so far avoided accusing the government of outright fraud and declaring Maduro’s victory illegitimate. But threats to arrest Gonzalez and his main backer, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, may force the U.S. to throw off the last bit of restraint.