Rutgers has two potential top-five draft picks — and a 12-12 record to show for it

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Rutgers’ Dylan Harper reacts during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Illinois, Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

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Rutgers guard Ace Bailey watches teammates during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Northwestern in Evanston, Ill., Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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Rutgers head coach Steve Pikiell signals to his team during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Northwestern in Evanston, Ill., Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

By NOAH TRISTER

Dylan Harper stepped to the free-throw line last weekend and the Maryland crowd showed no mercy, serenading the Rutgers star with an “overrated!” chant.

It’s been that kind of season for the Scarlet Knights. At this point, it’s hard to describe them as overrated because they aren’t receiving a single vote in the AP Top 25. And yet, there are plenty of reminders of unfulfilled potential.

This was supposed to be a breakthrough season for Rutgers after the Scarlet Knights landed two of the top freshmen in the country in Harper and Ace Bailey. Those two have mostly produced as advertised. Each is averaging 19 points per game, and some mock drafts have them both going in the top three this year behind Duke’s Cooper Flagg. Yet the Scarlet Knights are just 12-12 and probably will need to win the Big Ten Tournament to reach the NCAA Tournament.

Last week, they scored a big victory over then-No. 23 Illinois, but they weren’t able to build on that when they faced another ranked team at Maryland. Bailey was limited against the Terrapins because he was sick.

“It’s just been that kind of year. You can’t plan these things,” coach Steve Pikiell said. “You just play with the guys you got.”

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Teams with multiple top-five draft picks have generally been contenders for the Final Four

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Pikiell took over at Rutgers in 2016, and in 2021 the Scarlet Knights appeared in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 30 years. After missing the March Madness the past two seasons, Rutgers was ranked coming into this one thanks to the additions of the 6-foot-6 Harper and 6-foot-10 Bailey.

According to Sportradar, only 15 times has one school produced two of the top five picks in an NBA draft. That list reads like a who’s who of great college basketball programs: North Carolina (four times), UCLA (twice), Duke (twice), Kentucky (twice), Michigan State, UConn, Ohio State, Indiana and Kansas.

If Rutgers joins that group of schools at the 2025 draft, that would be a big moment for the Scarlet Knights. But if they don’t reach the NCAA Tournament, they’re in danger of making the wrong kind of history. Of those 15 teams that had two top-five picks, nine made the Final Four that year. Only one failed to reach the Sweet 16 — Kansas in 2014, when Joel Embiid was injured during the postseason.

Health has been an issue for Rutgers. Harper, the son of five-time NBA champ Ron Harper, dealt with a sprained ankle recently. Now he’s back, but Bailey wasn’t at full strength against Maryland.

“When you’re down with guys that make such an impact in the game, it’s hard to win,” Harper said.

Experience also works against Rutgers. Four of the team’s five starters last weekend were freshmen.

“It’s been probably before COVID and the extra (year) that you see a bunch of freshmen on the court,” Maryland coach Kevin Willard said.

Rutgers played Alabama and Texas A&M tough early in the season, but statistically there’s little about this team that stands out. As of Tuesday, the Scarlet Knights ranked outside the top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Kenpom.com. On defense, they were barely in the top 100.

At Maryland, they were competitive but ultimately lost 90-81.

“We are getting better,” Pikiell said. “Our defense was really doing a good job recently, and today — 90 on the road isn’t the recipe in this league.”

As the regular season winds down, expectations are a lot lower now.

“I think Steve has done an unbelievable job with that lineup. They had won two out of three. Defensively they had gotten much better, especially at home,” Willard said. “If this team was together next year, I would think they would probably be five wins better.”

Of course, this Rutgers team is highly unlikely to be together next season. Shortly after being taunted by the Maryland fans, Harper showed why he’s on the NBA’s radar, pulling off a beautiful spin move and then dishing to teammate Dylan Grant for a dunk.

A flash of brilliance — in another loss.

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