South Africa's election results may only be the start of a rocky political process. Here's why

South Africa’s election results may only be the start of a rocky political process. Here’s why

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MK Party supporters celebrate in the middle of the street in Mahlbnathini village in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, on Thursday May 30, 2024. MK Party is currently leading in the provincial poll against the ANC, who’ve held the stronghold in the province for the last 20 years. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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MK Party supporters dance in the middle of the street in Mahlbnathini village in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, on Thursday May 30, 2024. MK Party is currently leading in the provincial poll against the ANC, who’ve held the stronghold in the province for the last 20 years. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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People queue to cast their votes at a polling station in Johannesburg, Wednesday, May 29, 2024. South Africans began voting Wednesday in an election seen as their country’s most important in 30 years, and one that could put their young democracy in unknown territory.(AP Photo/Denis Farrell)

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A woman waits to enter a portable public restroom during an election meeting organized by Ukhonto weSizwe party in Mpumalanga, near Durban, South Africa, Saturday, May 25, 2024, ahead of the 2024 general elections scheduled for May 29. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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A woman casts her ballot at a polling station, during general elections in Eshowe, South Africa, Wednesday May 29, 2024. South Africans are voting in an election seen as their country’s most important in 30 years, and one that could put them in unknown territory in the short history of their democracy, the three-decade dominance of the African National Congress party being the target of a new generation of discontent in a country of 62 million people — half of whom are estimated to be living in poverty. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa casts his ballot Wednesday May 29, 2024 for the general elections in Soweto, South Africa. South Africans are voting in an election seen as their country’s most important in 30 years, and one that could put them in unknown territory in the short history of their democracy, the three-decade dominance of the African National Congress party being the target of a new generation of discontent in a country of 62 million people — half of whom are estimated to be living in poverty. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay)

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Democratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen, casts his ballot at a polling station in Durban, South Africa, Wednesday, May 29, 2024. South Africans have begun voting in an election seen as their country’s most important in 30 years, and one that could put their young democracy in unknown territory. (AP Photo/Str)

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Opposition Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema, casts his vote at a polling station in Polokwane, South Africa, Wednesday, May 29, 2024. South Africans have begun voting in an election seen as their country’s most important in 30 years, and one that could put their young democracy in unknown territory. (AP Photo)

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Former president of the A.N.C. and South Africa, Jacob Zuma, waves to supporters after casting his ballot in Nkandla, Kwazulu Natal, South Africa, Wednesday, May 29, 2024 during the general elections. South Africans are voting in an election seen as their country’s most important in 30 years, and one that could put them in unknown territory in the short history of their democracy, the three-decade dominance of the African National Congress party being the target of a new generation of discontent in a country of 62 million people. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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Women wait to cast their ballots on Wednesday May 29, 2024 during general elections in Nkandla, Kwazulu Natal, South Africa. South Africans are voting in an election seen as their country’s most important in 30 years, and one that could put them in unknown territory in the short history of their democracy, the three-decade dominance of the African National Congress party being the target of a new generation of discontent in a country of 62 million people — half of whom are estimated to be living in poverty. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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A supporter of Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), holds a poster with the face of leader Julius Malema at a final election rally in Polokwane, South Africa, Saturday, May 25, 2024. South African will vote in the 2024 general elections May 29. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

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South African President Cyril Ramaphos, center, speaks to reporters after voting his ballot Wednesday, May 29, 2024, for the general elections in Soweto, South Africa. South Africans voted Wednesday at schools, community centers, and in large white tents set up in open fields in an election seen as their country’s most important in 30 years. It could put the young democracy in unknown territory.(AP Photo/Jerome Delay)

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People queue to cast their votes at a polling station during general elections, in Cape Town, South Africa, Wednesday, May 29, 2024. South Africans have begun voting in an election seen as their country’s most important in 30 years, and one that could put their young democracy in unknown territory. (AP Photo/Nardus Engelbrecht)

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A woman stands outside her home near the polling station where former South African President Jacob Zuma is expected to cast his voto, in Nkandla, Kwazulu Natal, South Africa South Africa,Tuesday, May 28, 2024, ahead of the 2024 general elections scheduled for May 29. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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Independent Electoral Commission officials receive results at the National Results Operations Center in Johannesburg, South Africa, Thursday, May 30, 2024, one day after South Africans voted in an election seen as their country’s most important in 30 years, and one that could put them in unknown territory in the short history of their democracy. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay)

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Children sit by the side of the road next to a polling station, during general elections in Nkandla, Kwazulu Natal, South Africa, Wednesday May 29, 2024. South Africans are voting in an election seen as their country’s most important in 30 years, and one that could put them in unknown territory in the short history of their democracy, the three-decade dominance of the African National Congress party being the target of a new generation of discontent in a country of 62 million people — half of whom are estimated to be living in poverty. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

By GERALD IMRAY

CAPE TOWN, South Africa (AP) — The real politicking in South Africa may start after the final results of this week’s election are announced as the country faces the possibility of no outright winner.

Early results Thursday showed the ruling African National Congress at well below 50% of the national vote as counting continued, reinforcing pre-election analysis that the party that has dominated South African politics for 30 years may lose its outright majority in the coming days.

While some opposition parties will proclaim that as a victory for change, it’s unclear how the change would ultimately materialize should the ANC lose its majority.

The ANC is still far ahead of its next challenger in the partial results. Even the worst-case scenario for the ANC has it comfortably winning the most votes. But without a majority it would likely need a coalition to form a government and — in the first piece of business after the election — choose a president.

There’s been little indication of who the ANC might partner with. That means that as South Africa senses a landmark moment, there are complications coming if the ANC remains below 50%.

CHOOSING A PRESIDENT

Electing the head of state is the first priority after the election. South Africans vote for parties in national elections and not directly for their president. The election decides how many seats each party gets in Parliament. The president is then chosen in a vote by lawmakers after the election.

Because the ANC has had a clear majority in the 400-member Parliament ever since apartheid ended in 1994, the process of electing its leader as president has been simple.

This year might be very different. Without a majority of lawmakers, the ANC would have to find parties to vote with it in Parliament to get to the magic number of 201 to reelect President Cyril Ramaphosa for a second and final five-year term.

FORMING A GOVERNMENT

Again, if the ANC doesn’t have a majority in Parliament, it would need that agreement or coalition to also form a government. This has long-term implications as any coalition would effectively decide if laws are passed and the government is in a position to put policy into action.

Without an agreement, the ANC wouldn’t be able to govern — or in this case co-govern.

WHAT’S COMING NEXT

The timeline for what needs to happen and when it needs to happen is laid out. The national election results must be announced within seven days of polls closing on Wednesday. The independent electoral commission that runs the election says the results will be declared by Sunday, well within the time limit. From the time the results are declared, the new Parliament has 14 days to come together for its first sitting and elect a president.

That period in between the results being announced and Parliament sitting is then expected to involve a flurry of negotiations between parties to see what can be worked out. Who the ANC might enter an agreement with is anyone’s guess given how little the party has said regarding coalitions.

It’ll also depend on how short the ANC is from a majority — if indeed it does end up short in the final results. If it needs just a few percent to get past 50, it might approach smaller parties. Some have already said they won’t work with the ANC.

If it is further away from a majority, it would likely need to talk to one of the two biggest opposition parties. The centrist Democratic Alliance is the second biggest party behind the ANC and the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters is the third biggest. They have starkly different ideologies and could take the ANC in very different directions.

“All bets are off in this election,” said Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen. “We’re heading into coalition country.”

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AP Africa news: https://apnews.com/hub/africa